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MyWeatherUK - UKs best Thunderstorm Forecaster with severe weather outlooks, future weather patern outlooks and Regular Daily UK Weather Updates. No Over exaggerated Forecasts. Just the Real Forecast. Stay Alert. Aware. Safe

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Updated 04:00 PM

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Observed · 15:10
LightExtreme
13:10now15:10
Lightning Verification
Daily lightning outlook — recent days verified, next 2 days forecast

Forecast Verification

Comparing forecast levels against observed lightning strikes — last 30 days

Hit Rate
51% in 7d

50%

6 hits · 6 misses in 12 days

Skill Score

+0

vs climatology baseline

Low
Forecast Bias
Forecast bias1.00× ✓ neutral
Under (0.2×)Perfect (1.0×)Over (2.0×)
RMSE

0

avg 0 predicted · 0 observed

Verification — up to 30 days + 2-day forecast

predicted score vs observed strikes with 7-day rolling hit rate

Range
1 Aug7 Aug13 Aug19 Aug25 Aug31 Aug02550751000%25%50%75%100%
Hit day (bars)
Miss day (bars)
Forecast (2-day)
Observed strikes
7-day hit rate

Daily hit · miss record

1 Aug12 Aug

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Weather data sourced from the Met Office

Updates1

Message About TCM V3

Please check out the news page on the latest Update about the Future of this model

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